On the mathematics of infection and the case for quarantine at this time

This is being written March 26, 2020:

I was pondering what R2.5 meant. It really means 2.5 people will be infected for each confirmed case; but it also means an additional 2.5 people per case per week.In the 13 weeks since this was discovered. The results show the importance, at this time, of social distancing.

Consider this: 82,000 people have recovered from this virus. In comparison only a handful have died.
82,000 carriers, who infected 2.5 people each, thus whether testing has confirmed or not, whether they've developed symptoms or not, 205,000 people are now also carriers.
Since it takes 10 days of being contagious before you get sick, you can assume those 205,000 infected 512,500 others, who went on to infect 1,281,250 others, who went on to infect 3,203,125 others who went on to infect 8,007,812 others who went on to infect 20,019,531 others who went on to infect 50,048,828 others who went on to infect 125,122,070 others who went on to infect 312,805,175, who went on to infect 782,012,939 people, who went on to infect 1,955,032,348 people, who went on to infect 4,887,580,871 people, which covers the 13 weeks it has been since a smoking doctor got arrested for spreading rumors of illness in China.

That's more than half the planet that has been exposed.  Consider if the rumors are right and this so-called "novel" virus mutated just 13 weeks earlier (there are some people now claiming they had an illness that matched these symptoms back in November, possibly October).

And you think two weeks of quarantine, maybe reducing the R factor down to 2, would make that much of a difference?

Let's do the math, backing up two weeks and adjusting to an R of 2.

782,012,939 people were infected two weeks ago. With an R factor of 2, They infected 1,564,025,878 people who went on to infect 3,218,051,756. Slightly LESS than half the human race.

Add 10 days of infection, plus 14 days of sick, and we should be seeing this begin to subside (as much as it does) about April 24th to April 28th.

And now you know why that's the deadline for reassessing social distancing. We will either see effects by then, or we won't.

On the Constitutionality of Quarantine

Disclaimer- IANAL- I am not a lawyer. TLDR; I dig deeper into quarantine constitutionality. Do I like this? No. Is it constitutional? Undoubtedly yes. Do I pray that it is short? YES!!!! I just had to have an argument with my son on which was the more important use of bandwidth, work from home earning money for the family or his daily homework.

Read on for a deeper analysis

Digging deeper on this whole Quarantine Constitutionality question, it's not as straightforward as I though. HUGE numbers of paragraphs in US Code 42 have been repealed by Congress over the years (in keeping, of course, with their Article I section 8 powers to govern the public welfare).

What President Trump (and by extension, Kate Brown) is only two paragraphs from the original quarantine code passed by Congress in 1793. The same Congress that gave us the Constitution to begin with.

But it is plenty of authority for this disruption of civilian lives.

President Trump's original authority to manage the CDC and public health is in Sections 1 and 1A, most of which has been repealed over the years except for

42 U.S. Code § 26 - for the protection of military personnel civilians may be detained under quarantine.

President Trump's authority, which has been duly delegated to Kate Brown, is in Section 2, and under the older numbering system (this is after all a 200 year old law),

42 U.S. Code § 97 states that local authority trumps federal authority in this matter. (Section 2 is 81-114 inclusive).

These have, of course, been modified by the Supreme Court's interpretation over the years, but largely in *support* of executive and executive department authority to order quarantines.

Starting with the "Cordon Sanitaire" of Philadelphia in 1798 (after 10 years of battling annual yellow fever epidemics), colonial era boards of health have historically enjoyed near godlike police powers.

However, starting in the mid 1840s, steamship and shipping companies started complaining.

At first they tried using jurisdictional arguments, as in Smith v. Turner, 48 U.S. 283, 340-41 (1849) and in Morgan's Steamship Co. v. Louisiana Board of Health (1886)

Then they tried arguing that local ports couldn't stop international ships from docking, Compagnie Francaise de Navigation a Vapeur v. Board of Health of State of Louisiana (1902) [a direct link to the liberal press complaints about President Trump banning air travel from affected countries]

Finally, early anti-vaccination efforts tried to attack 42 U.S. Code § 97 directly, giving the federal government power over the states in implementation, but the right of the state to require vaccination was upheld in Jacobson v. Massachusetts (1905).

And it was extended to mental health with a court case on sexual predators, Matthews v. Eldridge (1976), in which "due process" concerns were suppressed in conjunction with the public good.

Do I like this? No. Is it constitutional? Undoubtedly yes. Do I pray that it is short? YES!!!! I just had to have an argument with my son on which was the more important use of bandwidth, work from home earning money for the family or his daily homework.

---------------Edit and update

Steve Lehto adds an interesting take on this. If you don't like these laws- CHALLENGE THEM. If you don't like an executive order- file for an injunction in court!

My post on social media about COVID-19 and Abortion

ABORTION IS ELECTIVE SURGERY AND DUE TO THE COVID-19 CRISIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARILY BANNED.
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ALWAYS PLAN FOR THE WORST BUT HOPE FOR THE BEST (SHARE AS NEWS STORY PUBLIC)

Worst case scenario, out of the 400 million (320 million counted in 2010, I suspect a large number of people missed counted in the census plus immigrants both legal and illegal) people potentially residing in these United States, 4 million will die by August and our healthcare system will collapse.

Practice the quarantines and social distancing as haphazardly and irrationally imposed by state governors one by one, have visitors respond to the Level 4 travel advisory, maybe 2 million will die by October.

Treat President Trump as a "War President" and institute mandatory testing and quarantine of those afflicted (THE SOUTH KOREA SOLUTION)- between 400,000 and a million dead by Christmas and an economy in tatters, but able to recover fairly quickly once this is over.

Add in the idea that Abortion is Elective Surgery and therefore banned just like all other elective surgeries during this war against the virus- and we might even end up with a baby boom that puts our demographics slightly positive.

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A few thoughts on the current President of the United States.

We all agree Trump is an ass. It is in fact the real only reason he got elected.

The majority of people living outside of the city are tired of whimps and metrosexuals leading the country. The people in the country are tired of the constant attacks on traditional lifestyles by scientists who seem to have been purchased by the rich to kill the poor. They are tired of giving in to any tinpot dictator who wants to lob a missile at Japan, at Taiwan, at Israel.

They wanted an ashole, and a hundred million people voted for an asshole, and they got the winningest asshole that the sad, amoral nation of the United States could come up with.

Trump is the metoo of every farmer and laborer who saw his daughter sucked into the Hollywood porn machine.

He is the vengeance of every coal miner and textile worker who lost their job to globalization.

He has become, just to win, the vengeance of 61 million kids killed in their mother's womb so that one more man might avoid responsibility.

He is the Metatron, and in his sin and the anger being channeled through him, he is the voice of the oppressed Christian.

So I do not blame Democrats for their Trump Derangement Syndrome, for Trump is the Patriarchy Striking Back for the sins of the sexual revolution. The immoral have every reason to fear that.